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Final 7-6
Nationals Park
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Matthew Liberatore
7
@
WSN
Washington Nationals
Cade Cavalli
6
2026-04-07 · 22:45 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (away)
run line
All 3 models agree (away)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -8.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Liberatore's strong early-season ERA (1.64) against a WSN team that can't win at home (0-3) creates a near coin-flip, but WSN's offense (.270 BA, .769 OPS) gives them a slight edge despite poor team pitching."
run line
27%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -41.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Liberatore's strong early-season ERA (1.64) against a WSN team that can't win at home (0-3) creates a near coin-flip, but WSN's offense (.270 BA, .769 OPS) gives them a slight edge despite poor team pitching."
over under
53%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Edge: +0.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Liberatore's strong early-season ERA (1.64) against a WSN team that can't win at home (0-3) creates a near coin-flip, but WSN's offense (.270 BA, .769 OPS) gives them a slight edge despite poor team pitching."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -8.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"St. Louis' superior starting pitching (1.64 ERA) combined with Washington's complete home collapse (0-3) creates a favorable environment for a Cardinals road victory."
run line
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -24.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"St. Louis' superior starting pitching (1.64 ERA) combined with Washington's complete home collapse (0-3) creates a favorable environment for a Cardinals road victory."
over under
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Edge: +12.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"St. Louis' superior starting pitching (1.64 ERA) combined with Washington's complete home collapse (0-3) creates a favorable environment for a Cardinals road victory."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
WSN
Edge: +0.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL +1.5
Edge: -30.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 10.5
Edge: -4.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -110 | -110 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +165 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -120 | +109 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -215 (-1.5) | +183 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -109 | -114 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O 100/U -124) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +160 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +105 | -115 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O 105/U -125) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -215 (-1.5) | +184 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -101 | -119 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.0 (O -125/U 105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -225 (-1.5) | +185 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -125 | +105 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +180 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +157 (+1.5) | -191 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -132 | +112 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +132 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -130 | +110 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +125 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -120 | +109 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -113/U -102) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -213 (-1.5) | +185 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -103 | -114 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.5 (O 102/U -125) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +175 (+1.5) | -219 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.