Back to Schedule
Final 9-3
Busch Stadium
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Gavin Williams
9
@
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Matthew Liberatore
3
2026-04-13 · 23:45 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (away)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -13.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"STL's home advantage and higher run production edge out CLE, but CLE's superior pitching keeps the game close and low-scoring."
run line
33%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -8.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"STL's home advantage and higher run production edge out CLE, but CLE's superior pitching keeps the game close and low-scoring."
over under
50%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"STL's home advantage and higher run production edge out CLE, but CLE's superior pitching keeps the game close and low-scoring."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CLE
Edge: -6.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"CLE's significantly superior pitching metrics (3.41 ERA, 10.57 K/9) should dominate against STL's struggling rotation (4.82 ERA, 6.17 K/9)."
run line
19%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -22.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"CLE's significantly superior pitching metrics (3.41 ERA, 10.57 K/9) should dominate against STL's struggling rotation (4.82 ERA, 6.17 K/9)."
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"CLE's significantly superior pitching metrics (3.41 ERA, 10.57 K/9) should dominate against STL's struggling rotation (4.82 ERA, 6.17 K/9)."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL
Edge: -7.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL -1.5
Edge: -25.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
53%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -116 | +105 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -125 | +100 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -108/U -115) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -114 | +104 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -122 | +102 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +143 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -119/U -101) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +144 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -120 | +102 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +142 (+1.5) | -172 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -116 | +105 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 103/U -118) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +141 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -119 | +101 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -106) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -167 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.