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Final 5-4
Citizens Bank Park
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
Michael Soroka
5
@
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Jesús Luzardo
4
2026-04-10 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (home)
over under
2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -25.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Jesús Luzardo's elite 13.28 K/9 and 0.95 WHIP give Philadelphia a clear pitching advantage against an Arizona offense that is hitting just .223 on the road."
run line
24%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -21.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Jesús Luzardo's elite 13.28 K/9 and 0.95 WHIP give Philadelphia a clear pitching advantage against an Arizona offense that is hitting just .223 on the road."
over under
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Jesús Luzardo's elite 13.28 K/9 and 0.95 WHIP give Philadelphia a clear pitching advantage against an Arizona offense that is hitting just .223 on the road."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
56%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -8.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"ARI's severe road weakness (1-4) versus PHI's home stability creates advantage despite both teams having weak offenses."
run line
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +2.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"ARI's severe road weakness (1-4) versus PHI's home stability creates advantage despite both teams having weak offenses."
over under
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"ARI's severe road weakness (1-4) versus PHI's home stability creates advantage despite both teams having weak offenses."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ARI
Edge: +2.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ARI +1.5
Edge: -23.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 7.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +150 | -180 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +113 | -125 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -102/U -118) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +150 | -190 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -108) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -143 (-1.5) | +117 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +148 | -167 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +130 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +148 | -180 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +110 | -130 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +122 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +109 | -131 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O 102/U -122) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -144 (-1.5) | +119 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +116 | -134 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -194 (-1.5) | +160 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +110 | -130 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +113 | -125 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.0 (O 101/U -116) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -149 (-1.5) | +132 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +151 | -179 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -112/U -109) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +122 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.