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Final 10-2
Great American Ball Park
LAA
Los Angeles Angels
Jack Kochanowicz
10
@
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns
2
2026-04-10 · 22:45 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -21.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Chase Burns' elite 2026 performance (0.82 ERA, 13.09 K/9) against a struggling LAA offense is the decisive matchup advantage for Cincinnati."
run line
33%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -11.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Chase Burns' elite 2026 performance (0.82 ERA, 13.09 K/9) against a struggling LAA offense is the decisive matchup advantage for Cincinnati."
over under
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Chase Burns' elite 2026 performance (0.82 ERA, 13.09 K/9) against a struggling LAA offense is the decisive matchup advantage for Cincinnati."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -19.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Chase Burns' dominant pitching (0.82 ERA, 13.09 K/9) provides decisive advantage over Kochanowicz against a struggling Angels offense."
run line
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +20.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Chase Burns' dominant pitching (0.82 ERA, 13.09 K/9) provides decisive advantage over Kochanowicz against a struggling Angels offense."
over under
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Chase Burns' dominant pitching (0.82 ERA, 13.09 K/9) provides decisive advantage over Kochanowicz against a struggling Angels offense."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CIN
Edge: -20.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CIN -1.5
Edge: -9.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
46%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +145 | -175 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.0 (O -102/U -118) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -140 (-1.5) | +118 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.5 (O 110/U -130) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +140 | -177 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 9.0 (O -103/U -121) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -148 (-1.5) | +120 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +150 | -170 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +148 | -180 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -140 (-1.5) | +120 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +118 | -140 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +122 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +119 | -143 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -143 (-1.5) | +119 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +112 | -132 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +164 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +115 | -140 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.5 (O 112/U -128) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -143 (-1.5) | +127 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +150 | -179 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U -101) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -136 (-1.5) | +112 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.