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Final 1-2
Chase Field
ATL
Atlanta Braves
Bryce Elder
1
@
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
Michael Soroka
2
2026-04-04 · 23:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
1 of 2 agree (away)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -13.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Atlanta's superior team pitching (ERA 2.00 vs 4.59) is the main edge, but lack of 2026 individual pitcher stats and ARI's perfect home record create significant uncertainty."
run line
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +2.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Atlanta's superior team pitching (ERA 2.00 vs 4.59) is the main edge, but lack of 2026 individual pitcher stats and ARI's perfect home record create significant uncertainty."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Atlanta's superior team pitching (ERA 2.00 vs 4.59) is the main edge, but lack of 2026 individual pitcher stats and ARI's perfect home record create significant uncertainty."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ARI
Edge: -13.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ARI -1.5
Edge: -29.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
66%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -185 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +104 | -115 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.5 (O -109/U -111) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -193 (-1.5) | +168 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -104 | -121 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 9.5 (O -108/U -115) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +163 (+1.5) | -210 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +103 | -113 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +168 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -103 | -117 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +175 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +162 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -107 | -113 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -104 | -112 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 9.5 (O -108/U -112) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +155 (+1.5) | -188 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -180 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +104 | -115 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.5 (O -106/U -108) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -193 (-1.5) | +169 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -105 | -112 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.5 (O -112/U -109) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +148 (+1.5) | -182 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.