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Final 2-7
Petco Park
COL
Colorado Rockies
Kyle Freeland
2
@
SDP
San Diego Padres
Nick Pivetta
7
2026-04-12 · 20:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (home)
over under
2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -53.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Pivetta's high strikeout rate provides a ceiling but his wildness and elevated ERA this season creates a volatile matchup, while Freeland's current stats likely overstate his true talent level."
run line
27%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -19.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Pivetta's high strikeout rate provides a ceiling but his wildness and elevated ERA this season creates a volatile matchup, while Freeland's current stats likely overstate his true talent level."
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Pivetta's high strikeout rate provides a ceiling but his wildness and elevated ERA this season creates a volatile matchup, while Freeland's current stats likely overstate his true talent level."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -36.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Colorado's poor away record (2-6) combined with San Diego's series momentum advantage (2-0) tips the scales toward the home team despite weak offensive output from both sides."
run line
15%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -31.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Colorado's poor away record (2-6) combined with San Diego's series momentum advantage (2-0) tips the scales toward the home team despite weak offensive output from both sides."
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Colorado's poor away record (2-6) combined with San Diego's series momentum advantage (2-0) tips the scales toward the home team despite weak offensive output from both sides."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
COL
Edge: +35.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
COL +1.5
Edge: -5.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +750 | -1400 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U -105) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -120 (-2.5) | -105 (+2.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +201 | -225 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -117 (-1.5) | -103 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +850 | -3335 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -132/U -106) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -127 (-2.5) | -109 (+2.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +194 | -225 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -115 (-1.5) | -105 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +550 | -1000 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.5 (O -125/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +110 (-2.0) | -145 (+2.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +700 | -1300 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -125) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -135 (-2.5) | +105 (+2.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +640 | -1340 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -129/U 100) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -123 (-2.5) | -105 (+2.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +750 | -1600 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -118/U -112) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -152 (-2.5) | +114 (+2.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +700 | -1300 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O -125/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -125 (-2.5) | -105 (+2.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +201 | -225 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -113/U -102) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -114 (-1.5) | +100 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +650 | -1250 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -111/U -125) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -143 (-2.5) | +105 (+2.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.