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Final 5-9 Petco Park
COL
Colorado Rockies
Ryan Feltner
5
@
SDP
San Diego Padres
Germán Márquez
9
2026-04-12 · 00:40 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (away)
run line All 3 models agree (away)
over under 2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 37% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -5.5% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Germán Márquez's alarming 2026 performance (12.00 ERA in 3 IP) is the dominant factor, likely giving Colorado's offense a significant advantage early in this game."

run line 38% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -24.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Germán Márquez's alarming 2026 performance (12.00 ERA in 3 IP) is the dominant factor, likely giving Colorado's offense a significant advantage early in this game."

over under 39% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Germán Márquez's alarming 2026 performance (12.00 ERA in 3 IP) is the dominant factor, likely giving Colorado's offense a significant advantage early in this game."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 36% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -6.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Ryan Feltner's exceptional early-season form (0.67 WHIP, 12.0 K/9) versus Germán Márquez's disastrous start (12.0 ERA) creates a decisive pitching advantage for Colorado."

run line 58% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -4.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Ryan Feltner's exceptional early-season form (0.67 WHIP, 12.0 K/9) versus Germán Márquez's disastrous start (12.0 ERA) creates a decisive pitching advantage for Colorado."

over under 60% MED The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Ryan Feltner's exceptional early-season form (0.67 WHIP, 12.0 K/9) versus Germán Márquez's disastrous start (12.0 ERA) creates a decisive pitching advantage for Colorado."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 53% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
COL
Edge: +10.4% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
run line 40% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
COL +1.5
Edge: -22.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 48% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline +140 -170
BetMGM over under 8.5 (O -105/U -115)
BetMGM run line -155 (-1.5) +130 (+1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +201 -225
BetOnline.ag over under 7.5 (O -110/U -110)
BetOnline.ag run line -163 (-1.5) +143 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline +140 -177
BetRivers over under 8.5 (O -105/U -120)
BetRivers run line -167 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
BetUS moneyline +140 -157
BetUS over under 8.5 (O -105/U -115)
BetUS run line -155 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline +136 -162
Bovada over under 8.0 (O -120/U 100)
Bovada run line -160 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline +140 -165
Caesars over under 8.5 (O -105/U -115)
Caesars run line -160 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +189 -232
DraftKings over under 8.0 (O 102/U -122)
DraftKings run line -163 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +190 -230
FanDuel over under 8.0 (O -110/U -110)
FanDuel run line -120 (-1.5) +100 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline +135 -165
Fanatics over under 8.5 (O 100/U -120)
Fanatics run line -165 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +201 -225
LowVig.ag over under 7.5 (O -107/U -107)
LowVig.ag run line -163 (-1.5) +144 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +142 -167
MyBookie.ag over under 8.5 (O -105/U -116)
MyBookie.ag run line -161 (-1.5) +131 (+1.5)

Team Stats

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