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Final 7-6
Yankee Stadium
MIA
Miami Marlins
Pete Fairbanks
7
@
NYY
New York Yankees
Max Fried
6
2026-04-05 · 17:35 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
1 of 2 agree (home)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -46.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Max Fried's historically dominant start to the 2026 season (0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP) against Chris Paddack's struggles (18.00 ERA) creates an overwhelming pitching advantage for New York."
run line
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -15.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Max Fried's historically dominant start to the 2026 season (0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP) against Chris Paddack's struggles (18.00 ERA) creates an overwhelming pitching advantage for New York."
over under
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Max Fried's historically dominant start to the 2026 season (0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP) against Chris Paddack's struggles (18.00 ERA) creates an overwhelming pitching advantage for New York."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYY
Edge: -50.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIA +1.5
Edge: -20.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
46%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +500 | -750 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 10.5 (O -105/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -120 (-3.5) | -105 (+3.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +252 | -285 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +125 (-1.5) | -145 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +525 | -1250 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 10.0 (O -129/U -109) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -130 (-3.5) | -107 (+3.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +242 | -285 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +125 (-1.5) | -145 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +475 | -800 | |
| Bovada | over under | 10.5 (O -125/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -120 (-3.5) | -110 (+3.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +420 | -650 | |
| Caesars | over under | 10.5 (O -130/U 100) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -135 (-3.5) | +105 (+3.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +566 | -1060 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 10.5 (O 100/U -129) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -110 (-3.5) | -118 (+3.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +540 | -950 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 10.5 (O -106/U -125) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -132 (-3.5) | +100 (+3.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +560 | -950 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 10.5 (O -105/U -125) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -110 (-3.5) | -120 (+3.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +252 | -285 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -113/U -102) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +127 (-1.5) | -143 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +241 | -294 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -111/U -110) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -132 (-2.5) | +107 (+2.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.