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Final 3-4
Citi Field
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen
3
@
NYM
New York Mets
Freddy Peralta
4
2026-04-07 · 23:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -11.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Freddy Peralta's elite strikeout rate (12.48 K/9) paired with NYM's dominant team pitching (2.53 ERA) gives the Mets a significant edge at home against a struggling ARI road offense."
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -24.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Freddy Peralta's elite strikeout rate (12.48 K/9) paired with NYM's dominant team pitching (2.53 ERA) gives the Mets a significant edge at home against a struggling ARI road offense."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Edge: -13.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
PUSH
"Freddy Peralta's elite strikeout rate (12.48 K/9) paired with NYM's dominant team pitching (2.53 ERA) gives the Mets a significant edge at home against a struggling ARI road offense."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -13.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"NYM's dominant pitching staff and offensive advantage paired with ARI's 0-3 road record make the Mets strong home favorites."
run line
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -4.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"NYM's dominant pitching staff and offensive advantage paired with ARI's 0-3 road record make the Mets strong home favorites."
over under
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Edge: +11.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
PUSH
"NYM's dominant pitching staff and offensive advantage paired with ARI's 0-3 road record make the Mets strong home favorites."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM
Edge: -16.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM -1.5
Edge: -3.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
50%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Edge: -3.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -220 | +175 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.5 (O -145/U 110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +154 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +129 | -142 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -118/U -102) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +145 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -240 | +165 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O -130/U -108) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -130 (+1.0) | -107 (-1.0) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +134 | -150 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +144 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -185 | +140 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -115 (+1.0) | -115 (-1.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +122 | -145 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -199 | +150 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -124/U -105) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +158 (+1.5) | -210 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +124 | -146 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -178 (-1.5) | +146 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +125 | -150 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +129 | -142 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -116/U 101) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +146 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -222 | +175 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -118/U -118) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -182 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.