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Final 2-3
Busch Stadium
BOS
Boston Red Sox
Connelly Early
2
@
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Dustin May
3
2026-04-11 · 00:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (away)
run line
2 of 3 agree (away)
over under
All 3 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -15.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Dustin May's historically poor 15.95 ERA to start the 2026 season is the dominant factor, giving BOS's lineup a significant advantage despite their own offensive struggles."
run line
29%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -14.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Dustin May's historically poor 15.95 ERA to start the 2026 season is the dominant factor, giving BOS's lineup a significant advantage despite their own offensive struggles."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Dustin May's historically poor 15.95 ERA to start the 2026 season is the dominant factor, giving BOS's lineup a significant advantage despite their own offensive struggles."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -4.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Dustin May's alarming 15.95 ERA this season creates offensive opportunity despite BOS's offensive struggles, making STL home victory likely but not dominant."
run line
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -5.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Dustin May's alarming 15.95 ERA this season creates offensive opportunity despite BOS's offensive struggles, making STL home victory likely but not dominant."
over under
63%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Dustin May's alarming 15.95 ERA this season creates offensive opportunity despite BOS's offensive struggles, making STL home victory likely but not dominant."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BOS
Edge: -16.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
56%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BOS +1.5
Edge: +12.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
53%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -140 | +118 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 7.5 (O 105/U -125) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +125 (+1.5) | -155 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -139 | +126 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -152 | +120 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O -105/U -120) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +118 (+1.5) | -148 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -127 | +116 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O 105/U -125) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -135 | +113 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.5 (O 105/U -125) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -140 | +118 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -155 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -143 | +119 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +129 (+1.5) | -156 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -138 | +118 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +118 (+1.5) | -142 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -145 | +120 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +120 (+1.5) | -145 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -139 | +126 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.0 (O 103/U -118) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +132 (+1.5) | -149 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -137 | +116 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -125/U 102) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +126 (+1.5) | -156 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.