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Final 3-4 Citizens Bank Park
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt
3
@
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Taijuan Walker
4
2026-04-11 · 17:05 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (away)
run line 2 of 3 agree (away)
over under 2 of 3 agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 37% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -10.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Taijuan Walker's disastrous 2026 season (11.57 ERA, 2.79 WHIP, 6.43 BB/9) makes him the central uncertainty — if he implodes early, ARI can steal this game on the road."

run line 38% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -26.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Taijuan Walker's disastrous 2026 season (11.57 ERA, 2.79 WHIP, 6.43 BB/9) makes him the central uncertainty — if he implodes early, ARI can steal this game on the road."

over under 45% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Taijuan Walker's disastrous 2026 season (11.57 ERA, 2.79 WHIP, 6.43 BB/9) makes him the central uncertainty — if he implodes early, ARI can steal this game on the road."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 55% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: +7.4% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Taijuan Walker's historically poor 2026 performance (11.57 ERA, 6.43 BB/9) against Arizona's stable road ace creates a significant pitcher mismatch favoring the visiting Diamondbacks."

run line 52% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -12.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Taijuan Walker's historically poor 2026 performance (11.57 ERA, 6.43 BB/9) against Arizona's stable road ace creates a significant pitcher mismatch favoring the visiting Diamondbacks."

over under 58% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Taijuan Walker's historically poor 2026 performance (11.57 ERA, 6.43 BB/9) against Arizona's stable road ace creates a significant pitcher mismatch favoring the visiting Diamondbacks."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 43% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ARI
Edge: -4.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
run line 36% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI -1.5
Edge: -3.7% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 46% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 7.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. PUSH

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline +105 -125
BetMGM over under 9.0 (O 100/U -120)
BetMGM run line -185 (-1.5) +150 (+1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +124 -137
BetOnline.ag over under 8.5 (O -110/U -110)
BetOnline.ag run line -186 (-1.5) +162 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline +112 -137
BetRivers over under 8.5 (O -121/U -103)
BetRivers run line -200 (-1.5) +160 (+1.5)
BetUS moneyline +107 -117
BetUS over under 9.0 (O -105/U -115)
BetUS run line -191 (-1.5) +165 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline +108 -130
Bovada over under 9.0 (O 105/U -125)
Bovada run line -180 (-1.5) +155 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline +110 -130
Caesars over under 9.0 (O 110/U -130)
Caesars run line -190 (-1.5) +158 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +123 -149
DraftKings over under 8.5 (O -108/U -112)
DraftKings run line +159 (+1.5) -193 (-1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +124 -146
FanDuel over under 8.5 (O -105/U -115)
FanDuel run line -184 (-1.5) +152 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline +120 -145
Fanatics over under 8.5 (O -110/U -110)
Fanatics run line -155 (-1.5) +130 (+1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +124 -137
LowVig.ag over under 8.5 (O -107/U -107)
LowVig.ag run line -186 (-1.5) +163 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +105 -123
MyBookie.ag over under 9.0 (O -102/U -119)
MyBookie.ag run line -194 (-1.5) +157 (+1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.