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Final 0-5 Oracle Park
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola
0
@
SFG
San Francisco Giants
Tyler Mahle
5
2026-04-08 · 19:45 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (away)
run line All 3 models agree (away)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 46% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: +44.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"San Francisco's historically weak early-season offense (2.6 RPG, .561 OPS) at home against a veteran like Nola, who should outperform his early 2026 numbers, tilts the advantage strongly toward Philadelphia."

run line 30% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY -1.5
Edge: +8.3% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"San Francisco's historically weak early-season offense (2.6 RPG, .561 OPS) at home against a veteran like Nola, who should outperform his early 2026 numbers, tilts the advantage strongly toward Philadelphia."

over under 53% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"San Francisco's historically weak early-season offense (2.6 RPG, .561 OPS) at home against a veteran like Nola, who should outperform his early 2026 numbers, tilts the advantage strongly toward Philadelphia."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 47% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: +45.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"SFG's 1-6 home record combined with PHI's superior team performance and Nola's elite career credentials creates significant advantage for the visiting Phillies."

run line 37% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +15.3% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"SFG's 1-6 home record combined with PHI's superior team performance and Nola's elite career credentials creates significant advantage for the visiting Phillies."

over under 71% MED The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"SFG's 1-6 home record combined with PHI's superior team performance and Nola's elite career credentials creates significant advantage for the visiting Phillies."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 41% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI
Edge: +39.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
run line 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI +1.5
Edge: +20.3% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 52% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 6.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline -135 +115
BetMGM over under 5.5 (O 110/U -145)
BetMGM run line -450 (-5.5) +310 (+5.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline -128 +116
BetOnline.ag over under 8.0 (O -125/U 105)
BetOnline.ag run line +124 (+1.5) -144 (-1.5)
BetRivers moneyline -134 +108
BetRivers over under 5.5 (O -117/U -121)
BetRivers run line -167 (-5.0) +123 (+5.0)
BetUS moneyline -126 +115
BetUS over under 8.5 (O -110/U -110)
BetUS run line +125 (+1.5) -145 (-1.5)
Bovada moneyline -133 +111
Bovada over under 5.5 (O 115/U -150)
Bovada run line -110 (-4.5) -120 (+4.5)
Caesars moneyline -135 +115
Caesars over under 5.5 (O 125/U -160)
Caesars run line -380 (-5.5) +280 (+5.5)
DraftKings moneyline -136 +113
DraftKings over under 5.5 (O 121/U -158)
DraftKings run line -440 (-5.5) +301 (+5.5)
FanDuel moneyline -134 +114
FanDuel over under 5.5 (O 120/U -160)
FanDuel run line +360 (-4.5) -580 (+4.5)
Fanatics moneyline +7000 -50000
Fanatics over under 5.5 (O 125/U -165)
Fanatics run line +280 (-4.5) -400 (+4.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline -128 +116
LowVig.ag over under 8.0 (O -123/U 107)
LowVig.ag run line +126 (+1.5) -142 (-1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +1200 -5000
MyBookie.ag over under 3.5 (O -125/U -118)
MyBookie.ag run line +230 (-2.5) -333 (+2.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.