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Scheduled
Petco Park
SEA
Seattle Mariners
Emerson Hancock
@
SDP
San Diego Padres
Randy Vásquez
2026-04-16 · 01:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (away)
over under
2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -17.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Emerson Hancock's dominant 2026 numbers are the X-factor, but his career 4.52 ERA suggests the Padres' home offense advantage still gives San Diego the edge."
run line
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -6.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Emerson Hancock's dominant 2026 numbers are the X-factor, but his career 4.52 ERA suggests the Padres' home offense advantage still gives San Diego the edge."
over under
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Emerson Hancock's dominant 2026 numbers are the X-factor, but his career 4.52 ERA suggests the Padres' home offense advantage still gives San Diego the edge."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -17.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"SDP's superior team metrics and strong home record advantage against struggling road-trip Mariners offense."
run line
29%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -35.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"SDP's superior team metrics and strong home record advantage against struggling road-trip Mariners offense."
over under
25%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"SDP's superior team metrics and strong home record advantage against struggling road-trip Mariners offense."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
41%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
SEA
Edge: -10.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
run line
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
SEA +1.5
Edge: -1.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
over under
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -110 | -110 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +155 (+1.5) | -190 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +101 | -111 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -108/U -112) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -212 (-1.5) | +181 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -112 | -112 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -108/U -115) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -190 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +101 | -111 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +180 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -225 (-1.5) | +185 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +180 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +149 (+1.5) | -181 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -104 | -112 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.0 (O -106/U -114) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -184 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +155 (+1.5) | -190 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +101 | -111 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -109) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -211 (-1.5) | +183 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -104 | -112 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -116) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +146 (+1.5) | -182 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.