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Scheduled Truist Park
MIA
Miami Marlins
Chris Paddack
@
ATL
Atlanta Braves
Bryce Elder
2026-04-15 · 23:15 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (home)
run line All 3 models agree (home)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -21.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Bryce Elder's historically dominant 2026 start (0.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) versus Chris Paddack's brutal struggles (8.31 ERA) creates one of the most lopsided pitching matchups of the early season."

run line 31% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -13.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Bryce Elder's historically dominant 2026 start (0.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) versus Chris Paddack's brutal struggles (8.31 ERA) creates one of the most lopsided pitching matchups of the early season."

over under 50% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Bryce Elder's historically dominant 2026 start (0.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) versus Chris Paddack's brutal struggles (8.31 ERA) creates one of the most lopsided pitching matchups of the early season."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 40% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -23.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Bryce Elder's elite early season pitching (0.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) versus Chris Paddack's struggles (8.31 ERA) creates stark pitching advantage for Atlanta at home."

run line 28% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -16.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Bryce Elder's elite early season pitching (0.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) versus Chris Paddack's struggles (8.31 ERA) creates stark pitching advantage for Atlanta at home."

over under 25% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Bryce Elder's elite early season pitching (0.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) versus Chris Paddack's struggles (8.31 ERA) creates stark pitching advantage for Atlanta at home."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 46% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ATL
Edge: -17.2% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
run line 59% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ATL -1.5
Edge: +14.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
over under 49% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline +140 -170
BetMGM over under 9.0 (O 100/U -120)
BetMGM run line -155 (-1.5) +125 (+1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +147 -163
BetOnline.ag over under 9.0 (O -103/U -117)
BetOnline.ag run line -148 (-1.5) +128 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline +140 -175
BetRivers over under 9.0 (O 100/U -122)
BetRivers run line -152 (-1.5) +123 (+1.5)
BetUS moneyline +145 -163
BetUS over under 9.0 (O -105/U -115)
BetUS run line -145 (-1.5) +125 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline +142 -172
Bovada over under 9.0 (O -105/U -115)
Bovada run line -140 (-1.5) +120 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline +143 -170
Caesars over under 9.0 (O -105/U -115)
Caesars run line -145 (-1.5) +122 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +141 -171
DraftKings over under 9.0 (O -105/U -115)
DraftKings run line -149 (-1.5) +123 (+1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +144 -172
FanDuel over under 9.0 (O -105/U -115)
FanDuel run line -152 (-1.5) +126 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline +140 -170
Fanatics over under 9.0 (O -105/U -115)
Fanatics run line -150 (-1.5) +125 (+1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +147 -163
LowVig.ag over under 9.0 (O 100/U -115)
LowVig.ag run line -147 (-1.5) +130 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +144 -169
MyBookie.ag over under 9.0 (O -106/U -115)
MyBookie.ag run line -147 (-1.5) +120 (+1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.