Back to Schedule
Final 10-4
Citizens Bank Park
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Riley Martin
10
@
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola
4
2026-04-14 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -15.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Aaron Nola's elite 2026 performance (3.18 ERA, 12.97 K/9) against a Cubs offense batting .219 is the decisive advantage for Philadelphia."
run line
31%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -10.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Aaron Nola's elite 2026 performance (3.18 ERA, 12.97 K/9) against a Cubs offense batting .219 is the decisive advantage for Philadelphia."
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Aaron Nola's elite 2026 performance (3.18 ERA, 12.97 K/9) against a Cubs offense batting .219 is the decisive advantage for Philadelphia."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -0.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Aaron Nola's superior pitching performance and strikeout capability gives PHI a meaningful advantage over the struggling Cubs offense."
run line
19%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -22.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Aaron Nola's superior pitching performance and strikeout capability gives PHI a meaningful advantage over the struggling Cubs offense."
over under
30%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Aaron Nola's superior pitching performance and strikeout capability gives PHI a meaningful advantage over the struggling Cubs offense."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC
Edge: -5.9%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI -1.5
Edge: +9.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +118 | -140 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 10.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +118 | -130 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +120 | -148 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 10.0 (O -109/U -114) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -167 (-1.5) | +133 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +122 | -135 | |
| BetUS | over under | 10.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +122 | -145 | |
| Bovada | over under | 10.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +115 | -135 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +143 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +113 | -136 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -171 (-1.5) | +141 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +116 | -136 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U -102) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -184 (-1.5) | +152 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +115 | -140 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +118 | -130 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.0 (O 103/U -118) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -160 (-1.5) | +141 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +123 | -145 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 10.0 (O -104/U -118) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -162 (-1.5) | +133 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.