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Final 5-6
Chase Field
ATL
Atlanta Braves
Martín Pérez
5
@
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt
6
2026-04-05 · 20:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (away)
run line
All 2 models agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: +13.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Brandon Pfaadt's early-season struggles (7.50 ERA) against an Atlanta offense averaging 5.38 runs per game heavily favors the Braves."
run line
33%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -42.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Brandon Pfaadt's early-season struggles (7.50 ERA) against an Atlanta offense averaging 5.38 runs per game heavily favors the Braves."
over under
31%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Brandon Pfaadt's early-season struggles (7.50 ERA) against an Atlanta offense averaging 5.38 runs per game heavily favors the Braves."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
46%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ATL
Edge: +12.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ATL +1.5
Edge: -31.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
71%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 9.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +270 | -350 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 10.5 (O 110/U -140) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +155 (+1.5) | -190 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -106 | -104 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -130/U 110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -217 (-1.5) | +185 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +185 | -265 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 9.5 (O -114/U -124) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -127 (-1.0) | -109 (+1.0) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -106 | -104 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -215 (-1.5) | +184 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +240 | -335 | |
| Bovada | over under | 10.0 (O -105/U -125) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +125 (-1.0) | -165 (+1.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +215 | -280 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.5 (O -130/U 100) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +174 | -232 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.5 (O -106/U -122) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -316 (-1.5) | +228 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +200 | -265 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 9.5 (O -106/U -125) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -300 (-1.5) | +210 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +210 | -285 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.5 (O -110/U -120) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -265 (-1.5) | +195 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -106 | -104 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -128/U 112) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -216 (-1.5) | +187 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +205 | -286 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.5 (O -125/U -111) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -222 (-1.5) | +160 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.