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Final 4-3 Citizens Bank Park
ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen
4
@
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Zach Pop
3
2026-04-12 · 17:35 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (away)
run line All 3 models agree (away)
over under 2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 38% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -5.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Zac Gallen's veteran experience and track record heavily outweigh Andrew Painter's minimal MLB sample size, giving Arizona a clear pitching advantage in this matchup."

run line 29% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -34.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Zac Gallen's veteran experience and track record heavily outweigh Andrew Painter's minimal MLB sample size, giving Arizona a clear pitching advantage in this matchup."

over under 49% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Zac Gallen's veteran experience and track record heavily outweigh Andrew Painter's minimal MLB sample size, giving Arizona a clear pitching advantage in this matchup."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 58% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: +14.1% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Zac Gallen's superior pitching (3.0 ERA, strong career track record) provides significant advantage over rookie Andrew Painter (4.82 ERA) in a matchup heavily favoring Arizona's pitching depth."

run line 18% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -45.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Zac Gallen's superior pitching (3.0 ERA, strong career track record) provides significant advantage over rookie Andrew Painter (4.82 ERA) in a matchup heavily favoring Arizona's pitching depth."

over under 48% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Zac Gallen's superior pitching (3.0 ERA, strong career track record) provides significant advantage over rookie Andrew Painter (4.82 ERA) in a matchup heavily favoring Arizona's pitching depth."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 44% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ARI
Edge: +0.1% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
run line 61% MED The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
ARI +1.5
Edge: -2.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 43% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 7.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline +120 -145
BetMGM over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
BetMGM run line -180 (-1.5) +145 (+1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +129 -142
BetOnline.ag over under 8.0 (O -113/U -107)
BetOnline.ag run line -171 (-1.5) +150 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline +120 -150
BetRivers over under 8.0 (O -115/U -108)
BetRivers run line -182 (-1.5) +145 (+1.5)
BetUS over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
BetUS run line -170 (-1.5) +148 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline +128 -153
Bovada over under 8.0 (O -110/U -110)
Bovada run line -165 (-1.5) +140 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline +135 -160
Caesars over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
Caesars run line -170 (-1.5) +143 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +129 -156
DraftKings over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
DraftKings run line -175 (-1.5) +144 (+1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +128 -152
FanDuel over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
FanDuel run line -170 (-1.5) +140 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline +125 -150
Fanatics over under 8.0 (O -115/U -105)
Fanatics run line -175 (-1.5) +145 (+1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +127 -140
LowVig.ag over under 8.0 (O -110/U -104)
LowVig.ag run line -173 (-1.5) +153 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +127 -149
MyBookie.ag over under 8.0 (O -115/U -106)
MyBookie.ag run line -165 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.