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Final 2-8
PNC Park
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Chris Bassitt
2
@
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Braxton Ashcraft
8
2026-04-05 · 17:35 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
All 2 models agree (home)
over under
1 of 2 agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -15.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Chris Bassitt's disastrous 2026 start (8.31 ERA, 8.78 BB/9) is the primary driver favoring Pittsburgh, though his strong career baseline suggests he may not be this bad all year."
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -28.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Chris Bassitt's disastrous 2026 start (8.31 ERA, 8.78 BB/9) is the primary driver favoring Pittsburgh, though his strong career baseline suggests he may not be this bad all year."
over under
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Chris Bassitt's disastrous 2026 start (8.31 ERA, 8.78 BB/9) is the primary driver favoring Pittsburgh, though his strong career baseline suggests he may not be this bad all year."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
53%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT
Edge: -1.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT -1.5
Edge: -28.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -102/U -118) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +170 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +107 | -118 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 106/U -126) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -205 (-1.5) | +177 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +106 | -132 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -112/U -112) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +170 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +106 | -116 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -205 (-1.5) | +176 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +102 | -122 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +165 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +175 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +102 | -122 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -116/U -104) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +161 (+1.5) | -197 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +102 | -120 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -122) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +164 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +100 | -120 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -195 (-1.5) | +160 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +108 | -119 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O 108/U -124) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -204 (-1.5) | +179 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +101 | -119 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -118/U -103) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +163 (+1.5) | -204 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.