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Final 6-1 Nationals Park
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Michael McGreevy
6
@
WSN
Washington Nationals
Miles Mikolas
1
2026-04-08 · 20:05 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (away)
run line All 3 models agree (away)
over under 2 of 3 agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -54.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"WSN's potent offense (6.11 R/G) against a home pitcher with no available current stats creates significant uncertainty, while McGreevy's early-season dominance gives STL a pitching edge."

run line 36% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -20.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"WSN's potent offense (6.11 R/G) against a home pitcher with no available current stats creates significant uncertainty, while McGreevy's early-season dominance gives STL a pitching edge."

over under 48% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 9.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"WSN's potent offense (6.11 R/G) against a home pitcher with no available current stats creates significant uncertainty, while McGreevy's early-season dominance gives STL a pitching edge."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -54.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Washington's 0-3 home record combined with St. Louis' superior pitching staff and McGreevy's excellent early season form heavily favors the visiting Cardinals."

run line 44% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -12.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Washington's 0-3 home record combined with St. Louis' superior pitching staff and McGreevy's excellent early season form heavily favors the visiting Cardinals."

over under 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 10.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Washington's 0-3 home record combined with St. Louis' superior pitching staff and McGreevy's excellent early season form heavily favors the visiting Cardinals."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 51% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL
Edge: -45.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
run line 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL +1.5
Edge: -14.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
over under 39% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 10.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline -1200 +675
BetMGM over under 6.5 (O -165/U 130)
BetMGM run line -175 (+2.5) +135 (-2.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline -118 +107
BetOnline.ag over under 8.5 (O -110/U -110)
BetOnline.ag run line +135 (+1.5) -155 (-1.5)
BetRivers moneyline -5000 +950
BetRivers over under 8.0 (O -125/U -113)
BetRivers run line -115 (+3.5) -120 (-3.5)
BetUS moneyline -120 +109
BetUS over under 8.5 (O -115/U -105)
BetUS run line +135 (+1.5) -155 (-1.5)
Bovada moneyline -3300 +1200
Bovada over under 8.5 (O -135/U 105)
Bovada run line -135 (+4.0) +105 (-4.0)
Caesars moneyline -120 +100
Caesars over under 8.5 (O 105/U -135)
Caesars run line -135 (+3.5) +105 (-3.5)
DraftKings moneyline -3400 +980
DraftKings over under 8.5 (O 114/U -149)
DraftKings run line -122 (+3.5) +106 (-3.5)
FanDuel moneyline -3000 +1000
FanDuel over under 8.5 (O 116/U -154)
FanDuel run line -132 (+3.5) +100 (-3.5)
Fanatics moneyline -2500 +1100
Fanatics over under 8.5 (O 130/U -170)
Fanatics run line +160 (+4.5) -215 (-4.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline -118 +107
LowVig.ag over under 8.5 (O -107/U -107)
LowVig.ag run line +136 (+1.5) -154 (-1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline -3333 +1000
MyBookie.ag over under 8.5 (O -118/U -125)
MyBookie.ag run line -182 (+3.5) +125 (-3.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.