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Final 4-3
Citi Field
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Carmen Mlodzinski
4
@
NYM
New York Mets
Nolan McLean
3
2026-03-29 · 17:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
All 2 models agree (home)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
72%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +6.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Nolan McLean's exceptional career ERA (2.06) and strikeout rate (10.69 K/9) give NYM a major pitching edge at home against a PIT team that is 0-2 with a 6.5 team ERA."
run line
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +8.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Nolan McLean's exceptional career ERA (2.06) and strikeout rate (10.69 K/9) give NYM a major pitching edge at home against a PIT team that is 0-2 with a 6.5 team ERA."
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Edge: +2.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Nolan McLean's exceptional career ERA (2.06) and strikeout rate (10.69 K/9) give NYM a major pitching edge at home against a PIT team that is 0-2 with a 6.5 team ERA."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM
Edge: -14.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
59%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM -1.5
Edge: +12.3%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
70%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 12.0
Edge: +20.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +150 | -180 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -150 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +161 | -179 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -139 (-1.5) | +119 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +160 | -200 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O -118/U -106) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -141 (-1.5) | +114 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +156 | -177 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -140 (-1.5) | +120 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +158 | -193 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -135 (-1.5) | +115 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +158 | -190 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -140 (-1.5) | +118 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +153 | -186 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -143 (-1.5) | +119 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +158 | -188 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -137 (-1.5) | +114 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +155 | -190 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -140 (-1.5) | +115 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +161 | -179 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -107/U -107) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -137 (-1.5) | +121 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +153 | -182 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -116/U -105) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -141 (-1.5) | +115 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.