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Final 5-6
Busch Stadium
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Joey Cantillo
5
@
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Michael McGreevy
6
2026-04-14 · 23:45 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -9.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Michael McGreevy's exceptional command (1.76 BB/9, 0.84 WHIP) gives STL a significant pitching edge against a Cleveland offense struggling at 3.8 runs per game."
run line
31%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -28.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Michael McGreevy's exceptional command (1.76 BB/9, 0.84 WHIP) gives STL a significant pitching edge against a Cleveland offense struggling at 3.8 runs per game."
over under
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Michael McGreevy's exceptional command (1.76 BB/9, 0.84 WHIP) gives STL a significant pitching edge against a Cleveland offense struggling at 3.8 runs per game."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +9.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"McGreevy's superior pitching performance and control advantage over Cantillo combined with STL's home field edge makes the Cardinals slight favorites."
run line
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -15.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"McGreevy's superior pitching performance and control advantage over Cantillo combined with STL's home field edge makes the Cardinals slight favorites."
over under
30%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"McGreevy's superior pitching performance and control advantage over Cantillo combined with STL's home field edge makes the Cardinals slight favorites."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL
Edge: +3.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
32%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL -1.5
Edge: -27.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -125 | +105 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -105 | -105 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -124 | +100 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 9.0 (O -109/U -114) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -124 | +113 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -150 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -130 | +108 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -160 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -110 | -110 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +130 (+1.5) | -155 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -112 | -108 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +153 (+1.5) | -186 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -102 | -116 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -122) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +164 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -110 | -110 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +155 (+1.5) | -190 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -105 | -105 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -107/U -107) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +132 (+1.5) | -149 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -128 | +109 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -104/U -118) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +121 (+1.5) | -149 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.