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Final 2-6
Wrigley Field
LAA
Los Angeles Angels
Yusei Kikuchi
2
@
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Matthew Boyd
6
2026-04-01 · 18:20 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (away)
run line
All 2 models agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
45%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: +2.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Matthew Boyd's dismal 14.73 ERA in 2026 is the central factor, but with only 3.2 IP of sample size, regression toward his career 4.61 ERA limits confidence in either direction."
run line
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -16.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Matthew Boyd's dismal 14.73 ERA in 2026 is the central factor, but with only 3.2 IP of sample size, regression toward his career 4.61 ERA limits confidence in either direction."
over under
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Matthew Boyd's dismal 14.73 ERA in 2026 is the central factor, but with only 3.2 IP of sample size, regression toward his career 4.61 ERA limits confidence in either direction."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
97%
HIGH
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
LAA
Edge: +54.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
LAA +1.5
Edge: -24.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
99%
HIGH
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 11.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +140 | -165 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 6.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -165 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +139 | -154 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 6.0 (O -103/U -117) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +149 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +138 | -175 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 6.0 (O -120/U -105) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +139 | -156 | |
| BetUS | over under | 6.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +148 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +141 | -170 | |
| Bovada | over under | 6.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +140 | -165 | |
| Caesars | over under | 6.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +143 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +139 | -168 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 6.0 (O -108/U -112) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -171 (-1.5) | +141 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +136 | -162 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 6.0 (O -106/U -114) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -178 (-1.5) | +146 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +135 | -165 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 6.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +145 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +139 | -154 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 6.0 (O 100/U -115) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +137 | -161 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 6.0 (O -108/U -114) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -172 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.