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Scheduled Progressive Field
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Shane Baz
@
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Parker Messick
2026-04-16 · 22:10 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (home)
run line All 3 models agree (home)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 40% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Cleveland's superior pitching staff (3.41 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.57 K-rate) combined with Baltimore's injury-depleted lineup makes the Guardians the clear favorite at home."

run line 31% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Cleveland's superior pitching staff (3.41 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.57 K-rate) combined with Baltimore's injury-depleted lineup makes the Guardians the clear favorite at home."

over under 51% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Cleveland's superior pitching staff (3.41 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.57 K-rate) combined with Baltimore's injury-depleted lineup makes the Guardians the clear favorite at home."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 35% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"CLE's significantly better pitching metrics combined with BAL's loss of cleanup hitter Mountcastle gives the Guardians a clear home advantage in this matchup."

run line 27% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"CLE's significantly better pitching metrics combined with BAL's loss of cleanup hitter Mountcastle gives the Guardians a clear home advantage in this matchup."

over under 32% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"CLE's significantly better pitching metrics combined with BAL's loss of cleanup hitter Mountcastle gives the Guardians a clear home advantage in this matchup."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 58% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CLE
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
run line 54% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CLE -1.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
over under 35% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

Odds Comparison
Odds pending -- check back closer to game time.

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.