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Final 5-2
Oracle Park
NYM
New York Mets
Kodai Senga
5
@
SFG
San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb
2
2026-04-05 · 20:05 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (away)
run line
All 2 models agree (away)
over under
1 of 2 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: +18.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Logan Webb's alarming 7.36 ERA through 11 innings in 2026 is the central concern, but Senga's high-strikeout dominance against a weak SFG offense gives the Mets the clear pitching edge."
run line
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -47.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Logan Webb's alarming 7.36 ERA through 11 innings in 2026 is the central concern, but Senga's high-strikeout dominance against a weak SFG offense gives the Mets the clear pitching edge."
over under
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Logan Webb's alarming 7.36 ERA through 11 innings in 2026 is the central concern, but Senga's high-strikeout dominance against a weak SFG offense gives the Mets the clear pitching edge."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM
Edge: +24.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
NYM +1.5
Edge: -47.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
32%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 7.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +300 | -425 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 4.5 (O -102/U -125) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -550 (-1.5) | +375 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +104 | -115 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -214 (-1.5) | +183 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +310 | -480 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 3.5 (O -121/U -115) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -150 (-1.0) | +110 (+1.0) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +103 | -113 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -215 (-1.5) | +184 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +265 | -385 | |
| Bovada | over under | 4.0 (O -120/U -110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -150 (-1.0) | +115 (+1.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +240 | -320 | |
| Caesars | over under | 4.5 (O -110/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -500 (-1.5) | +350 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +335 | -502 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 3.5 (O -118/U -110) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -559 (-1.5) | +363 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +330 | -480 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 3.5 (O -112/U -118) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -670 (-1.5) | +400 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +295 | -425 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 3.5 (O -110/U -120) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -800 (-1.5) | +490 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +104 | -115 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.0 (O -118/U 103) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -213 (-1.5) | +185 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +340 | -500 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 4.0 (O -118/U -118) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -455 (-1.5) | +285 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.