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Final 10-5
Nationals Park
LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tyler Glasnow
10
@
WSN
Washington Nationals
Jake Irvin
5
2026-04-04 · 20:05 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
1 of 2 agree (away)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -52.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Jake Irvin's career 4.94 ERA and LAD's superior pitching staff (2.83 ERA) create a favorable matchup edge for Los Angeles despite WSN's strong early offensive numbers."
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY -1.5
Edge: -13.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Jake Irvin's career 4.94 ERA and LAD's superior pitching staff (2.83 ERA) create a favorable matchup edge for Los Angeles despite WSN's strong early offensive numbers."
over under
32%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Jake Irvin's career 4.94 ERA and LAD's superior pitching staff (2.83 ERA) create a favorable matchup edge for Los Angeles despite WSN's strong early offensive numbers."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
50%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
WSN
Edge: +47.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
WSN -1.5
Edge: -17.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 10.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -10000 | +3300 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 13.5 (O -150/U 115) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -110 (+7.5) | -110 (-7.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -200 | +180 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.5 (O 105/U -125) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -175 (+1.5) | +153 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -305 | +235 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 14.0 (O -120/U -118) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -117 (+7.5) | -118 (-7.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -200 | +174 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.5 (O 105/U -125) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -175 (+1.5) | +152 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -305 | +245 | |
| Bovada | over under | 14.0 (O -125/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +100 (+7.5) | -130 (-7.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -210 | +175 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.5 (O 105/U -125) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -105 (+7.5) | -125 (-7.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -219 | +179 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.5 (O 104/U -126) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -117 (+7.5) | -111 (-7.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -200 | +168 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -125 (+1.5) | +104 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -300 | +240 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 14.5 (O 115/U -150) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -120 (+7.5) | -110 (-7.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -200 | +180 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.5 (O 107/U -123) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -175 (+1.5) | +154 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -303 | +245 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 14.0 (O -118/U -118) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -143 (+7.5) | +100 (-7.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.