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Final 2-8 Comerica Park
MIA
Miami Marlins
Sandy Alcantara
2
@
DET
Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal
8
2026-04-12 · 17:40 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (away)
run line 2 of 3 agree (away)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 41% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: +1.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Sandy Alcantara's historically dominant 2026 start (0.74 ERA, 0.58 WHIP) gives Miami a significant pitching edge despite facing reigning Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal."

run line 39% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -21.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Sandy Alcantara's historically dominant 2026 start (0.74 ERA, 0.58 WHIP) gives Miami a significant pitching edge despite facing reigning Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal."

over under 43% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Sandy Alcantara's historically dominant 2026 start (0.74 ERA, 0.58 WHIP) gives Miami a significant pitching edge despite facing reigning Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 35% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -5.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Sandy Alcantara's exceptional 0.74 ERA and elite control create a dominant pitching advantage that Miami should exploit against Detroit's struggling offense."

run line 16% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -44.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Sandy Alcantara's exceptional 0.74 ERA and elite control create a dominant pitching advantage that Miami should exploit against Detroit's struggling offense."

over under 52% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Sandy Alcantara's exceptional 0.74 ERA and elite control create a dominant pitching advantage that Miami should exploit against Detroit's struggling offense."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 46% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIA
Edge: +6.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
run line 60% MED The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
DET -1.5
Edge: +16.5% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
over under 49% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 9.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline +145 -175
BetMGM over under 6.0 (O -120/U 100)
BetMGM run line -165 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +152 -168
BetOnline.ag over under 6.5 (O 105/U -125)
BetOnline.ag run line -158 (-1.5) +138 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline +155 -200
BetRivers over under 6.0 (O -122/U -103)
BetRivers run line -165 (-1.5) +132 (+1.5)
BetUS moneyline +146 -165
BetUS over under 6.5 (O 100/U -120)
BetUS run line -155 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline +144 -175
Bovada over under 6.5 (O -105/U -115)
Bovada run line -160 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline +150 -178
Caesars over under 6.5 (O -105/U -115)
Caesars run line -165 (-1.5) +140 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +149 -181
DraftKings over under 6.5 (O 100/U -120)
DraftKings run line -156 (-1.5) +129 (+1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +150 -178
FanDuel over under 6.5 (O 100/U -122)
FanDuel run line -156 (-1.5) +130 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline +145 -175
Fanatics over under 6.5 (O 100/U -120)
Fanatics run line -165 (-1.5) +135 (+1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +152 -168
LowVig.ag over under 6.5 (O 107/U -123)
LowVig.ag run line -157 (-1.5) +139 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +146 -172
MyBookie.ag over under 6.5 (O -101/U -120)
MyBookie.ag run line -170 (-1.5) +136 (+1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.