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Final 5-2 UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
TEX
Texas Rangers
Jacob deGrom
5
@
LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers
Roki Sasaki
2
2026-04-12 · 20:10 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline 2 of 3 agree (home)
run line All 3 models agree (home)
over under All 3 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 46% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +13.7% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Roki Sasaki's struggles (7.00 ERA, 5.0 BB/9) against LAD's elite offense averaging 6.38 runs/game is the dominant factor, though deGrom's elite stuff keeps TEX competitive if he stays healthy and goes deep."

run line 32% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -20.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Roki Sasaki's struggles (7.00 ERA, 5.0 BB/9) against LAD's elite offense averaging 6.38 runs/game is the dominant factor, though deGrom's elite stuff keeps TEX competitive if he stays healthy and goes deep."

over under 35% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"Roki Sasaki's struggles (7.00 ERA, 5.0 BB/9) against LAD's elite offense averaging 6.38 runs/game is the dominant factor, though deGrom's elite stuff keeps TEX competitive if he stays healthy and goes deep."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 41% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +8.7% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"LAD's elite offensive lineup (0.875 OPS, 6.38 runs/game) faces TEX's weak defense and deGrom's subpar season start, creating strong home advantage."

run line 20% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -32.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"LAD's elite offensive lineup (0.875 OPS, 6.38 runs/game) faces TEX's weak defense and deGrom's subpar season start, creating strong home advantage."

over under 48% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

"LAD's elite offensive lineup (0.875 OPS, 6.38 runs/game) faces TEX's weak defense and deGrom's subpar season start, creating strong home advantage."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
TEX
Edge: -31.7% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
run line 41% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
LAD -1.5
Edge: -11.8% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST
over under 50% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 10.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. LOST

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline -285 +220
BetMGM over under 7.5 (O 118/U -150)
BetMGM run line -115 (+1.5) -110 (-1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +113 -125
BetOnline.ag over under 8.5 (O -111/U -109)
BetOnline.ag run line -188 (-1.5) +164 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline -245 +170
BetRivers over under 7.5 (O 108/U -155)
BetRivers run line -104 (+1.5) -132 (-1.5)
BetUS moneyline +114 -125
BetUS over under 8.5 (O -110/U -110)
BetUS run line -190 (-1.5) +164 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline -150 +115
Bovada over under 7.0 (O 100/U -130)
Bovada run line +105 (+1.0) -135 (-1.0)
Caesars moneyline -320 +240
Caesars over under 7.5 (O 100/U -130)
Caesars run line -145 (+1.5) +115 (-1.5)
DraftKings moneyline -252 +187
DraftKings over under 7.5 (O 112/U -146)
DraftKings run line -116 (+1.5) -112 (-1.5)
FanDuel moneyline -280 +210
FanDuel over under 7.5 (O 116/U -154)
FanDuel run line -118 (+1.5) -112 (-1.5)
Fanatics moneyline -245 +180
Fanatics over under 7.5 (O 115/U -150)
Fanatics run line -105 (+1.5) -125 (-1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +113 -125
LowVig.ag over under 8.5 (O -108/U -106)
LowVig.ag run line -188 (-1.5) +165 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline -400 +270
MyBookie.ag over under 8.0 (O -125/U -111)
MyBookie.ag run line +115 (+2.5) -154 (-2.5)

Team Stats

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