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Final 8-3
Great American Ball Park
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Skenes
8
@
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Abbott
3
2026-04-01 · 16:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +29.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Andrew Abbott's strong early-season performance combined with Cincinnati's home advantage slightly edges out Paul Skenes, whose 2026 numbers are an aberration given his elite career profile."
run line
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -3.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Andrew Abbott's strong early-season performance combined with Cincinnati's home advantage slightly edges out Paul Skenes, whose 2026 numbers are an aberration given his elite career profile."
over under
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Andrew Abbott's strong early-season performance combined with Cincinnati's home advantage slightly edges out Paul Skenes, whose 2026 numbers are an aberration given his elite career profile."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CIN
Edge: +14.8%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CIN -1.5
Edge: -22.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 6.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -525 | +360 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 10.5 (O -102/U -125) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -120 (+3.5) | -105 (-3.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -560 | +340 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 10.0 (O -120/U -118) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -127 (+3.0) | -108 (-3.0) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -425 | +285 | |
| Bovada | over under | 10.5 (O -120/U -110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -115 (+3.0) | -115 (-3.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -450 | +320 | |
| Caesars | over under | 10.5 (O -115/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +105 (+3.5) | -135 (-3.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -530 | +347 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 10.5 (O -112/U -116) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -110 (+3.5) | -118 (-3.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -520 | +350 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 10.5 (O 102/U -136) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -104 (+3.5) | -128 (-3.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -600 | +390 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 10.5 (O 105/U -140) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -110 (+3.5) | -120 (-3.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -500 | +345 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 10.0 (O -118/U -118) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -105 (+3.5) | -125 (-3.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.