Back to Schedule
Final 0-2
Great American Ball Park
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Braxton Ashcraft
0
@
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns
2
2026-03-30 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (home)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
55%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -2.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Chase Burns' elite strikeout stuff (career 13.99 K/9) gives Cincinnati a meaningful pitching edge over Ashcraft, who lacks 2026 season data, making Burns the decisive factor in this early-season matchup."
run line
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -6.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Chase Burns' elite strikeout stuff (career 13.99 K/9) gives Cincinnati a meaningful pitching edge over Ashcraft, who lacks 2026 season data, making Burns the decisive factor in this early-season matchup."
over under
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Edge: +3.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Chase Burns' elite strikeout stuff (career 13.99 K/9) gives Cincinnati a meaningful pitching edge over Ashcraft, who lacks 2026 season data, making Burns the decisive factor in this early-season matchup."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
62%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CIN
Edge: +4.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
45%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CIN -1.5
Edge: +6.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
78%
HIGH
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Edge: +27.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +110 | -135 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +155 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -108 | -102 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -181 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +110 | -136 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -114/U -109) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -210 (-1.5) | +163 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +118 | -130 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +156 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +113 | -135 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -185 (-1.5) | +160 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +115 | -135 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -190 (-1.5) | +158 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +113 | -136 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -193 (-1.5) | +159 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -106 | -110 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 9.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +158 (+1.5) | -192 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -110 | -110 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +140 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -108 | -102 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -113/U -102) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -181 (-1.5) | +159 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +110 | -130 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -115/U -106) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -189 (-1.5) | +153 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.