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Final 11-7
Busch Stadium
TBR
Tampa Bay Rays
Steven Matz
11
@
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Dustin May
7
2026-03-29 · 18:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
1 of 2 agree (away)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
54%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -0.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Dustin May's superior career WHIP (1.20) gives STL a pitching edge at home, but TBR's offense (6.0 RPG) and the value on the +1.5 run line make Tampa Bay a live underdog."
run line
62%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: +20.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Dustin May's superior career WHIP (1.20) gives STL a pitching edge at home, but TBR's offense (6.0 RPG) and the value on the +1.5 run line make Tampa Bay a live underdog."
over under
53%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Edge: -0.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Dustin May's superior career WHIP (1.20) gives STL a pitching edge at home, but TBR's offense (6.0 RPG) and the value on the +1.5 run line make Tampa Bay a live underdog."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL
Edge: -3.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
STL -1.5
Edge: -15.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
49%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 13.5
Edge: -4.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -115 | +105 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -102/U -118) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -113 | +103 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -114/U -106) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -117 | -107 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.0 (O -106/U -118) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -190 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -114 | +104 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +144 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -122 | +102 | |
| Bovada | over under | 7.5 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +143 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -118 | -102 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +144 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -118 | +100 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +138 (+1.5) | -166 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +145 (+1.5) | -175 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -113 | +103 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -112/U -103) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +146 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -116 | +100 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -118/U -104) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +142 (+1.5) | -177 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.