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Final 1-4
Progressive Field
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Cade Horton
1
@
CLE
Cleveland Guardians
Joey Cantillo
4
2026-04-03 · 20:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (away)
run line
All 2 models agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -0.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Joey Cantillo's wildness and high WHIP early in 2026 against a Cubs offense that leads in runs per game makes Chicago the slight favorite despite playing on the road."
run line
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -49.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Joey Cantillo's wildness and high WHIP early in 2026 against a Cubs offense that leads in runs per game makes Chicago the slight favorite despite playing on the road."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Joey Cantillo's wildness and high WHIP early in 2026 against a Cubs offense that leads in runs per game makes Chicago the slight favorite despite playing on the road."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
60%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC
Edge: +17.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC +1.5
Edge: -40.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
73%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +135 | -170 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 4.5 (O 110/U -140) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -525 (-1.5) | +360 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -129 | +117 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -102/U -118) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | +149 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +123 | -175 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 4.0 (O -137/U -103) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -245 (-1.0) | +170 (+1.0) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -113 | +103 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| BetUS | run line | +148 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +120 | -155 | |
| Bovada | over under | 4.0 (O -130/U 100) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -250 (-1.0) | +185 (+1.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -135 | +115 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +280 (+1.5) | -380 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -136 | +113 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -108/U -112) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +305 (+1.5) | -438 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -138 | +118 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +128 (+1.5) | -154 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -140 | +115 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +120 (+1.5) | -145 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -129 | +117 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.0 (O 101/U -116) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | +150 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +115 | -143 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 4.0 (O -133/U 100) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -500 (-1.5) | +310 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.