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Final 7-1
Target Field
TBR
Tampa Bay Rays
Steven Matz
7
@
MIN
Minnesota Twins
Mick Abel
1
2026-04-04 · 23:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
1 of 2 agree (away)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
All 2 models agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -16.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Mick Abel's complete lack of available stats makes him the biggest wildcard, while TBR's clear offensive edge over MIN's struggling pitching staff tips the balance slightly toward Tampa Bay."
run line
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -26.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Mick Abel's complete lack of available stats makes him the biggest wildcard, while TBR's clear offensive edge over MIN's struggling pitching staff tips the balance slightly toward Tampa Bay."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Mick Abel's complete lack of available stats makes him the biggest wildcard, while TBR's clear offensive edge over MIN's struggling pitching staff tips the balance slightly toward Tampa Bay."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
46%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIN
Edge: -4.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
MIN -1.5
Edge: +5.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
65%
MED
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 9.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -118 | -102 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.0 (O -102/U -118) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +103 | -113 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -245 (-1.5) | +203 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -109 | -114 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 7.5 (O -118/U -106) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | +160 (+1.5) | -200 (-1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -112 | +102 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -245 (-1.5) | +208 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -117 | -103 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Bovada | run line | +155 (+1.5) | -180 (-1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| Caesars | over under | 8.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +143 (+1.5) | -170 (-1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.0 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +141 (+1.5) | -171 (-1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -102 | -116 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O 102/U -124) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +152 (+1.5) | -184 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -105 | -115 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.0 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +155 (+1.5) | -190 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +103 | -113 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -102/U -113) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -240 (-1.5) | +208 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -114 | -104 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.0 (O -108/U -114) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +144 (+1.5) | -179 (-1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.