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Final 10-1
Coors Field
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola
10
@
COL
Colorado Rockies
Michael Lorenzen
1
2026-04-03 · 20:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 2 models agree (away)
run line
1 of 2 agree (away)
over under
1 of 2 agree (over)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
34%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -36.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Coors Field's extreme run-inflation environment combined with two struggling starting pitchers points to a high-scoring game, but PHI's overall talent edge still favors them to win."
run line
37%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -15.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Coors Field's extreme run-inflation environment combined with two struggling starting pitchers points to a high-scoring game, but PHI's overall talent edge still favors them to win."
over under
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 9.5
Edge: -13.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Coors Field's extreme run-inflation environment combined with two struggling starting pitchers points to a high-scoring game, but PHI's overall talent edge still favors them to win."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
46%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PHI
Edge: -24.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
COL -1.5
Edge: -14.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
43%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Edge: -8.2%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | -210 | +170 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 14.5 (O -110/U -115) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -120 (+9.5) | -105 (-9.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -177 | +160 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 10.0 (O -125/U 105) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -120 (+1.5) | +100 (-1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | -225 | +175 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 14.0 (O -129/U -110) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -114 (+9.5) | -121 (-9.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | -177 | +156 | |
| BetUS | over under | 10.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -120 (+1.5) | +100 (-1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | -197 | +162 | |
| Bovada | over under | 14.5 (O -115/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -110 (+9.5) | -120 (-9.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -190 | +158 | |
| Caesars | over under | 14.5 (O -110/U -120) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -110 (+9.5) | -120 (-9.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -194 | +159 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 14.5 (O -107/U -121) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -130 (+9.5) | +100 (-9.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -240 | +194 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 10.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -150 (+1.5) | +125 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -235 | +190 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 10.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -150 (+1.5) | +125 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -177 | +160 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 10.0 (O -123/U 107) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -117 (+1.5) | +103 (-1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | -192 | +162 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 14.5 (O -111/U -125) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -111 (+9.5) | -125 (-9.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.