Back to Schedule
Final 2-6
T-Mobile Park
HOU
Houston Astros
Mike Burrows
2
@
SEA
Seattle Mariners
George Kirby
6
2026-04-13 · 20:10 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
All 3 models agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -59.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"George Kirby's elite command and Seattle's dominant team pitching give the Mariners an edge, but Houston's potent offense (6.13 R/G) against an unknown Astros starter creates significant uncertainty."
run line
33%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -38.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"George Kirby's elite command and Seattle's dominant team pitching give the Mariners an edge, but Houston's potent offense (6.13 R/G) against an unknown Astros starter creates significant uncertainty."
over under
36%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"George Kirby's elite command and Seattle's dominant team pitching give the Mariners an edge, but Houston's potent offense (6.13 R/G) against an unknown Astros starter creates significant uncertainty."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
33%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -66.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Seattle's dominant pitching (3.14 ERA) and current series lead at home outweigh Houston's offensive potential, especially with key injuries reducing their depth."
run line
20%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -51.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Seattle's dominant pitching (3.14 ERA) and current series lead at home outweigh Houston's offensive potential, especially with key injuries reducing their depth."
over under
56%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Seattle's dominant pitching (3.14 ERA) and current series lead at home outweigh Houston's offensive potential, especially with key injuries reducing their depth."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
SEA
Edge: -59.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
run line
59%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
SEA -1.5
Edge: -12.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
over under
52%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 10.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +2800 | -10000 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O -150/U 118) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | +190 (-3.5) | -250 (+3.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +143 | -158 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -113/U -107) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -147 (-1.5) | +127 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +135 | -167 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 9.0 (O 102/U -143) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -190 (-4.0) | +135 (+4.0) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +141 | -158 | |
| BetUS | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -145 (-1.5) | +125 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +142 | -172 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.0 (O -125/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -135 (-4.0) | +105 (+4.0) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +3000 | -20000 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.5 (O 125/U -160) | ||
| Caesars | run line | +175 (-3.5) | -220 (+3.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +139 | -168 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 8.5 (O -153/U 117) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | +169 (-3.5) | -226 (+3.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +2200 | -20000 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -174/U 130) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +182 (-3.5) | -250 (+3.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +1700 | -5000 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 8.5 (O -150/U 115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +190 (-3.5) | -260 (+3.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +143 | -158 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -104) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -146 (-1.5) | +129 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +141 | -167 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -118/U -118) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | +230 (-3.5) | -333 (+3.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.