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Final 4-2 Rate Field
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Trevor Rogers
4
@
CHW
Chicago White Sox
Shane Smith
2
2026-04-07 · 23:40 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (away)
run line All 3 models agree (away)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 42% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -18.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Shane Smith's historically bad 2026 stats (19.29 ERA, 3.21 WHIP, 8.57 BB/9) make him a massive liability against any MLB lineup, giving Baltimore a commanding pitching advantage with Rogers on the mound."

run line 30% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY -1.5
Edge: -15.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Shane Smith's historically bad 2026 stats (19.29 ERA, 3.21 WHIP, 8.57 BB/9) make him a massive liability against any MLB lineup, giving Baltimore a commanding pitching advantage with Rogers on the mound."

over under 35% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Edge: -18.5% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Shane Smith's historically bad 2026 stats (19.29 ERA, 3.21 WHIP, 8.57 BB/9) make him a massive liability against any MLB lineup, giving Baltimore a commanding pitching advantage with Rogers on the mound."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 49% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -11.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Exceptional pitching performance from Trevor Rogers (1.38 ERA) against Shane Smith's historically poor start (19.29 ERA) heavily favors Baltimore despite their recent away struggles."

run line 40% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -5.1% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Exceptional pitching performance from Trevor Rogers (1.38 ERA) against Shane Smith's historically poor start (19.29 ERA) heavily favors Baltimore despite their recent away struggles."

over under 65% MED The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Edge: +11.5% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

"Exceptional pitching performance from Trevor Rogers (1.38 ERA) against Shane Smith's historically poor start (19.29 ERA) heavily favors Baltimore despite their recent away struggles."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 49% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL
Edge: -11.6% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
run line 39% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL +1.5
Edge: -6.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON
over under 48% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.5
Edge: -5.5% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds. WON

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline -3000 +1100
BetMGM over under 6.5 (O 125/U -160)
BetMGM run line +320 (+2.5) -450 (-2.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline -150 +136
BetOnline.ag over under 8.0 (O 110/U -130)
BetOnline.ag run line +113 (+1.5) -133 (-1.5)
BetRivers moneyline -3335 +850
BetRivers over under 6.5 (O 107/U -150)
BetRivers run line +104 (+2.0) -143 (-2.0)
BetUS moneyline -151 +135
BetUS over under 7.0 (O 105/U -125)
BetUS run line +115 (+1.5) -135 (-1.5)
Bovada moneyline -2000 +900
Bovada over under 6.5 (O 110/U -145)
Bovada run line +105 (+2.0) -135 (-2.0)
Caesars moneyline -155 +130
Caesars over under 8.0 (O 110/U -130)
Caesars run line -450 (+1.5) +320 (-1.5)
DraftKings moneyline -156 +129
DraftKings over under 8.0 (O 109/U -131)
DraftKings run line +321 (+2.5) -476 (-2.5)
FanDuel moneyline -162 +136
FanDuel over under 7.5 (O -105/U -115)
FanDuel run line +108 (+1.5) -130 (-1.5)
Fanatics moneyline -155 +130
Fanatics over under 7.5 (O -110/U -110)
Fanatics run line +110 (+1.5) -130 (-1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline -150 +136
LowVig.ag over under 8.0 (O 112/U -128)
LowVig.ag run line +116 (+1.5) -131 (-1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline -2000 +825
MyBookie.ag over under 6.5 (O 110/U -154)
MyBookie.ag run line -455 (+1.5) +290 (-1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.