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Scheduled PNC Park
WSN
Washington Nationals
Jake Irvin
0
@
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
Mason Montgomery
0
2026-04-15 · 22:40 UTC

Predictions

Cross-Model Agreement

moneyline All 3 models agree (home)
run line All 3 models agree (home)
over under All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet) LLM
moneyline 40% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -25.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Pittsburgh's elite pitching staff (3.02 ERA) against a struggling Jake Irvin (8.00 ERA in 2026) gives the Pirates a significant pitching edge, even as Washington's offense has been productive this season."

run line 34% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -13.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Pittsburgh's elite pitching staff (3.02 ERA) against a struggling Jake Irvin (8.00 ERA in 2026) gives the Pirates a significant pitching edge, even as Washington's offense has been productive this season."

over under 34% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Pittsburgh's elite pitching staff (3.02 ERA) against a struggling Jake Irvin (8.00 ERA in 2026) gives the Pirates a significant pitching edge, even as Washington's offense has been productive this season."

Haiku Current Series Record LLM
moneyline 38% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -27.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Pittsburgh's elite pitching staff (3.02 ERA, 9.84 K/9) vs. Washington's struggling starter Jake Irvin (8.0 ERA this season) creates a significant matchup advantage for the home Pirates."

run line 29% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -17.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Pittsburgh's elite pitching staff (3.02 ERA, 9.84 K/9) vs. Washington's struggling starter Jake Irvin (8.0 ERA this season) creates a significant matchup advantage for the home Pirates."

over under 27% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

"Pittsburgh's elite pitching staff (3.02 ERA, 9.84 K/9) vs. Washington's struggling starter Jake Irvin (8.0 ERA this season) creates a significant matchup advantage for the home Pirates."

ML Baseline ML
moneyline 41% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT
Edge: -24.0% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
run line 36% NO EDGE The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
PIT -1.5
Edge: -10.9% Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market. Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
over under 52% LOW The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 10.0
Market: The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.

Odds Comparison
Sportsbook Type Away Home Total
BetMGM moneyline +145 -180
BetMGM over under 9.5 (O 100/U -120)
BetMGM run line -145 (-1.5) +118 (+1.5)
BetOnline.ag moneyline +158 -175
BetOnline.ag over under 9.0 (O -123/U 103)
BetOnline.ag run line -133 (-1.5) +113 (+1.5)
BetRivers moneyline +143 -180
BetRivers over under 9.5 (O 100/U -124)
BetRivers run line -143 (-1.5) +117 (+1.5)
BetUS moneyline +155 -176
BetUS over under 9.5 (O 100/U -120)
BetUS run line -135 (-1.5) +115 (+1.5)
Bovada moneyline +152 -184
Bovada over under 9.5 (O 100/U -120)
Bovada run line -135 (-1.5) +115 (+1.5)
Caesars moneyline +158 -190
Caesars over under 9.5 (O 100/U -120)
Caesars run line -135 (-1.5) +115 (+1.5)
DraftKings moneyline +153 -186
DraftKings over under 9.5 (O 102/U -122)
DraftKings run line -136 (-1.5) +113 (+1.5)
FanDuel moneyline +150 -178
FanDuel over under 9.5 (O 100/U -122)
FanDuel run line -137 (-1.5) +114 (+1.5)
Fanatics moneyline +150 -180
Fanatics over under 9.5 (O 100/U -120)
Fanatics run line -140 (-1.5) +115 (+1.5)
LowVig.ag moneyline +158 -175
LowVig.ag over under 9.0 (O -121/U 106)
LowVig.ag run line -131 (-1.5) +116 (+1.5)
MyBookie.ag moneyline +148 -175
MyBookie.ag over under 9.5 (O -101/U -120)
MyBookie.ag run line -133 (-1.5) +109 (+1.5)

Team Stats

Stats not yet available.