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Final 6-3
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
SFG
San Francisco Giants
Landen Roupp
6
@
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Shane Baz
3
2026-04-10 · 23:15 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
All 3 models agree (home)
run line
2 of 3 agree (home)
over under
All 3 models agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -16.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Baltimore's superior run production and OPS advantage at home gives them a slight edge, but neither offense is explosive enough to suggest a comfortable win."
run line
30%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -36.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
WON
"Baltimore's superior run production and OPS advantage at home gives them a slight edge, but neither offense is explosive enough to suggest a comfortable win."
over under
51%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Baltimore's superior run production and OPS advantage at home gives them a slight edge, but neither offense is explosive enough to suggest a comfortable win."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
58%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: +2.4%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Baltimore's superior offensive output and home-field advantage outweigh San Francisco's pitching strikeout advantage in what projects as a low-scoring game."
run line
48%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: +11.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Baltimore's superior offensive output and home-field advantage outweigh San Francisco's pitching strikeout advantage in what projects as a low-scoring game."
over under
56%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
"Baltimore's superior offensive output and home-field advantage outweigh San Francisco's pitching strikeout advantage in what projects as a low-scoring game."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL
Edge: -15.6%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
run line
38%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
BAL -1.5
Edge: +1.5%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
over under
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 7.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
LOST
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +105 | -125 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 8.5 (O 100/U -120) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -220 (-1.5) | +165 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | -113 | +103 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -198 (-1.5) | +173 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +102 | -127 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -107/U -117) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -215 (-1.5) | +170 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +109 | -120 | |
| BetUS | over under | 8.0 (O -120/U 100) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +172 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +103 | -123 | |
| Bovada | over under | 8.0 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +170 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| Caesars | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -205 (-1.5) | +170 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 7.5 (O -110/U -110) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -193 (-1.5) | +159 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | -118 | +100 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 7.5 (O -115/U -105) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | +146 (+1.5) | -178 (-1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | -120 | +100 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 7.5 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | +135 (+1.5) | -165 (-1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | -113 | +103 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 7.5 (O -102/U -113) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -198 (-1.5) | +174 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +108 | -127 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 8.5 (O -106/U -115) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -200 (-1.5) | +162 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.