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Scheduled
Citizens Bank Park
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga
@
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Jesús Luzardo
2026-04-15 · 22:40 UTC
Predictions
Cross-Model Agreement
moneyline
2 of 3 agree (away)
run line
2 of 3 agree (away)
over under
2 of 3 agree (under)
AI Baseline (Sonnet)
LLM
moneyline
35%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME
Edge: -24.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Jesus Luzardo's exceptional command (0.74 BB/9) and elite strikeout rate (13.28 K/9) gives PHI a significant pitching edge against a struggling Cubs offense."
run line
31%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
HOME -1.5
Edge: -9.7%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Jesus Luzardo's exceptional command (0.74 BB/9) and elite strikeout rate (13.28 K/9) gives PHI a significant pitching edge against a struggling Cubs offense."
over under
47%
LOW
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"Jesus Luzardo's exceptional command (0.74 BB/9) and elite strikeout rate (13.28 K/9) gives PHI a significant pitching edge against a struggling Cubs offense."
Haiku Current Series Record
LLM
moneyline
39%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY
Edge: -6.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"CHC's superior team pitching (3.24 ERA vs 4.18) combined with series momentum deficit suggests slight edge for visiting Cubs despite offensive struggles."
run line
25%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
AWAY +1.5
Edge: -39.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"CHC's superior team pitching (3.24 ERA vs 4.18) combined with series momentum deficit suggests slight edge for visiting Cubs despite offensive struggles."
over under
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Under 8.5
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
"CHC's superior team pitching (3.24 ERA vs 4.18) combined with series momentum deficit suggests slight edge for visiting Cubs despite offensive struggles."
ML Baseline
ML
moneyline
44%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC
Edge: -1.1%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
run line
40%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
CHC +1.5
Edge: -24.0%
Our model's probability minus the sportsbook's implied probability. Higher edge = bigger perceived advantage over the market.
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
over under
42%
NO EDGE
The model's calibrated probability that a prediction is correct (0-100%). Tiers: HIGH (75%+), MED (60-74%), LOW (45-59%), NO EDGE (<45%).
Over 8.0
Market:
The implied probability derived from the sportsbook's current betting odds.
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Type | Away | Home | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | moneyline | +110 | -135 | |
| BetMGM | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetMGM | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +145 (+1.5) | |
| BetOnline.ag | moneyline | +120 | -132 | |
| BetOnline.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -112/U -108) | ||
| BetOnline.ag | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +149 (+1.5) | |
| BetRivers | moneyline | +120 | -150 | |
| BetRivers | over under | 8.5 (O -124/U 100) | ||
| BetRivers | run line | -177 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) | |
| BetUS | moneyline | +120 | -132 | |
| BetUS | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| BetUS | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +148 (+1.5) | |
| Bovada | moneyline | +117 | -140 | |
| Bovada | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Bovada | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| Caesars | moneyline | +118 | -140 | |
| Caesars | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Caesars | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +143 (+1.5) | |
| DraftKings | moneyline | +119 | -143 | |
| DraftKings | over under | 9.0 (O -108/U -112) | ||
| DraftKings | run line | -175 (-1.5) | +144 (+1.5) | |
| FanDuel | moneyline | +122 | -144 | |
| FanDuel | over under | 8.5 (O -122/U 100) | ||
| FanDuel | run line | -178 (-1.5) | +146 (+1.5) | |
| Fanatics | moneyline | +115 | -140 | |
| Fanatics | over under | 9.0 (O -105/U -115) | ||
| Fanatics | run line | -180 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| LowVig.ag | moneyline | +120 | -132 | |
| LowVig.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -109/U -105) | ||
| LowVig.ag | run line | -170 (-1.5) | +150 (+1.5) | |
| MyBookie.ag | moneyline | +120 | -141 | |
| MyBookie.ag | over under | 9.0 (O -101/U -120) | ||
| MyBookie.ag | run line | -174 (-1.5) | +140 (+1.5) |
Team Stats
Stats not yet available.